(vasep.com.vn) Pangasius farming and export industry plays an important role in aquaculture economics in Vietnam, especially in the Mekong Delta. However, the appearance of El Niño phenomenon and climate change has put great challenges on this field.

El Niño and the influence on Pangasius fingerling

El Niño is the phenomenon specified with the unusual warmth of the sea water surface’s temperature in the center, and the east of the Pacific Ocean, causing some changes in global’ s weather. In Vietnam, El Niño usually leads to lacking water and drought in the Mekong Delta. Lacking fresh water not only reduces the aquaculture area, but it also increases the risk of diseases in fish. The rise of water temperature in El Niño period can put fish under stress, declining the growth speed, and increasing the mortality rate.

The impact of farming and producing the Pangasius process.

In Vietnam, El Niño usually leads to a lack of water and drought in the Mekong Delta. According to the National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, El Niño could decrease the rainfall between 25% and 50% compared to the average rainfall for many years, directly affecting the freshwater source for farming aquatic products.

Pangasius is a freshwater species that relies too much on the Tien and Hau rivers. Lacking fresh water not only reduces the aquaculture area but also increases the risk of diseases in fish. Besides, the rise of water temperature in El Niño can put fish under stress, declining the growth speed, and increasing the mortality rate.

The influence on Pangasius export

The reason for the decline of Pangasius production is the effects of El Niño, and climate change that result in the unstable supply, impacting on satisfying export contracts’ ability. Product quality will decline because of farming environment is unsecured, it can also decrease export’s value.

Climate change and long-term challenges

Climate change is resulting in several long-term weather challenges and sea levels. Mekong Delta, which is the main point of Pangasius farming, is seriously facing saltwater intrusion. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the dry season, saltwater intrusion might encroach inland from 50 to 70km, affecting around 40% of the Mekong Delta area. Saltwater makes water quality go down, causing difficulty for farming Pangasius originally required a freshwater environment.

Climate change also causes the frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena such as storms, floods, and drought. These changes lead to difficulty in the management of farming ponds, increasing production and risk costs for Fishman.

Adaptation solutions from the experiences of other countries

To cope with the above challenges, many countries have applied effective adaptation solutions: Transforming aquaculture models: Some European countries have adopted aquaculture models combined with renewable energy, such as using solar and wind energy, minimizing environmental impacts, and increasing economic efficiency; Monitoring and forecasting: Japan uses IoT and AI technology to monitor the water environment and forecast diseases, helping farmers adjust production activities in a timely manner.

El Niño and climate change are posing serious challenges to the world, in all sectors, including Vietnam's pangasius production and export industry. Proactively implementing adaptation and impact mitigation solutions is necessary to ensure the sustainable development of the industry in the future.

Vietnam has participated in three new generations of FTAs, specifically with the United Kingdom. There are two FTAS: CPTPP and UKFTA. The combination of content and approach of both agreements creates favorable conditions for businesses in both countries to fully exploit trade and investment opportunities, including the export of Pangasius to the UK.

According to data from Vietnam’s customs, on January 1st, the export of Pangasius to the UK reached four million USD, which is a 30% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decline in the export value of pangasius is a part of the general trend of pangasius imports in other markets when the first month of the year coincides with the Vietnam Tet holiday. At the same time, the beginning of the year is the time for countries to spend thousands of billions on importing Pangasius to stockpile for the end-of-year holidays and festivals in 2024.

The UK has joint CPTPP which means the tariffs will be reduced or eliminated to 0% according to CPTPP commitments, and Vietnam’s Pangasius have advantages in price competition compared to countries that did not participate in CPTPP. Businesses in export Pangasius will find it easier when they approach markets thanks to the reduction of trade barriers and harmonized standards. They can also leverage the distribution networks and trade partners of other CPTPP member countries.

Previously, Vietnam had to meet the UK’s standards which may differ from other markets, and the cost of quality inspections and certification could be high. Now, under CPTPP, quality standards will be harmonized, helping to decrease costs and procedures, and exporters can make use of CPTPP quality certifications to export to the UK. Technical barriers have been minimized through harmonized regulations within the CPTPP, and businesses can receive technical support from other CPTPP countries to comply with regulations. Furthermore, Vietnamese Pangasius exporters are less likely to be affected by the UK-specific factors, as the markets now are expanded within the CPTPP, enabling them to diversify markets and reduce risks.

However, the UK's accession to the CPTPP also creates stronger competition between Vietnam and other CPTPP countries such as Canada, Australia, and Japan. Companies need to be cautious to meet higher quality standards and diversify products to meet market demands.

As one of the most comprehensive and dynamic free trade agreements in the world, providing significant opportunities for economic growth and international cooperation, the CPTPP currently has 11 member countries, accounting for 12% of global GDP.

Vietnam's exports to the UK now have a competitive advantage over other markets, as countries like India, Indonesia, and Thailand have no FTA with the UK. However, to better take advantage of the tariff preferences offered by this agreement, businesses need to be proactive in securing raw materials. Additionally, focusing on improving quality and supply capacity will help increase market share in the UK.

According to the latest information from a consulting firm based in Ho Chi Minh City, authorized by Undercurrent News to collect and analyze, prices of Vietnamese farmed fish rose sharply in early 2025 due to limited source of raw material. After a significant increase at the end of 2024, the price of pangasius mostly started this year at its highest level in a long time.

The last week of 2024 saw a sharp increase, and the first week of 2025, the increase was lower a bit but maintained at a high level. Fish weighing more than 1.2 kg recorded the highest price, reaching 32,440 VND (1.28 USD)/kg, the highest since 2022. These big fish are mostly popular in the Chinese market, while smaller sizes are preferred for fillet exports to the EU and the United States.

The consulting firm said that the main reason for the sharp rise in the price of large-sized fish was that the number of fish was very limited. In particular, as of the end of December 2024, fish weighing 800g to 1kg accounted for 37% of the total, while fish of larger size only accounted for about 5%.

In addition, demand from the Chinese market, especially during the Lunar New Year, also contributed to the price increase. In addition, the supply of fish is limited as fish grow slowly in cold weather in December.

The price of pangasius also continued to rise sharply, reaching VND 46,300/kg in the first week of 2025, the highest since February 2023. The consulting firm also warned of a shortage of fish in the coming months, due to a sharp drop in supply and a low survival rate during the breeding season.