Pangasius exports in the first 9 months of this year are considered quite positive compared to the same period last year, when the entire export turnover continuously recorded positive growth. However, Customs data shows that in the first half of September 2024, some major markets witnessed a slight decline such as China & HK down 19%, of which Hong Kong alone decreased 17%, Thailand decreased 23%. Cumulative pangasius exports up to September 15, 2024 to markets generally still recorded growth due to the export turnover in previous months achieving quite positive results. Specifically: Up to September 15, 2024, pangasius exports to the US reached 240 million USD, up 23%; Brazil reached 81 million USD, up 26%; Thailand reached 43 million USD, up 9%.

In the first half of the last month of Q3/2024, Mexico continued to lead the CPTPP market in consuming Vietnamese pangasius with a value of 3 million USD, up 25% over the same period last year, contributing 30% of the total pangasius imports of CPTPP from Vietnam. Cumulative pangasius exports to Mexico as of September 15, 2024 reached 55 million USD, up 19% over the same period last year.

Behind Mexico, pangasius exports to Canada reached 2 million USD in the first half of September 2024, up 49% over the same period last year. As of September 15, 2024, pangasius exports to this market reached more than 28 million USD, an increase of 13% over the same period in 2023.

After 5 years since coming into effect in January 2019, CPTPP has played an important role in promoting Vietnam's trade with markets in the Americas, especially member markets including Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru (in which Canada, Mexico and Peru are the markets that have FTA relations with Vietnam for the first time).

In addition, in the first weeks of September 2024, the continued increase in raw pangasius prices shows signs of warming up. In week 37, the price of raw pangasius was VND26,400/kg, down from VND28,900/kg in week 33, but still relatively high compared to other times in the first 8 months of 2024.

As of week 37, the price of fish sized 800gr - 1000gr was VND27,100/kg; 1000gr - 1200gr was VND27,460/kg, the last time this type had such a high price was in week 10, which shows that the market is in short supply of larger fish; and fish over 1200gr is 27,565 VND/kg, almost the same as the price of weeks 30 and 31. Previously, the price of raw pangasius of 800gr - 1000gr in the first 8 months of this year was generally lower than in 2023 and 2022.

With expectations of continued warming export prices and growth in export turnover, Vietnam's pangasius exports in Q3/2024 will still achieve positive results, as markets are gradually preparing goods to serve consumer demand during the 2024 year-end festival. Notably, value-added pangasius products will continue to break through and grow strongly in markets, especially China. Therefore, preparing goods to meet market demand will help businesses not waste potential and opportunities to expand market share for these products.

According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam's pangasius exports in the first half of September 2024 reached 77 million USD, a slight increase of 1% over the same period in 2023. Cumulative exports up to September 15, 2024 reached nearly 1.4 billion USD, an increase of 9% over the same period last year.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is one of the customers who consume a lot of Vietnamese pangasius. Vietnam is also the largest supplier of pangasius in this market, accounting for 40-50% of the market share in the UAE. Pangasius exports to this West Asian country continue to receive strong reception and growth, even though the CEPA Trade Agreement - Vietnam's first free trade agreement negotiated with a country in the Middle East and Africa has not yet been signed.

According to data from Vietnam Customs, in May 2024, Vietnam's pangasius export turnover to the UAE will reach more than 2 million USD, up 40% compared to May 2024. Cumulative pangasius exports in the first 5 months of this year to this market reached more than 11 million USD, up 47% over the same period last year.

The main product of the pangasius industry exported to the UAE is still frozen pangasius fillet products (HS 03046200). By the end of May 2024, exports of this product to the UAE reached about 6000 tons, worth about 14 million USD, up 22% in volume and 61% in value over the same period last year, accounting for 90% of the proportion. Followed by frozen and packaged pangasius products (HS code 03032400) with an export turnover of about 1.3 million USD in the first 5 months of this year, up 84% over the same period, accounting for 9% of the proportion.

The UAE has a series of factors that are suitable to become one of Vietnam's important trading partners such as: Ranking first in the economy in Arab countries and ranking 17th out of 61 highly competitive economies in the world, the per capita consumption of seafood is higher than the world average, etc... The agricultural economic structure accounts for less than 1%, so up to 90% of the country's seafood consumption comes from imports, young people love proteins from seafood in the context of the UAE's economy continues to expand,... By the end of 2023, Vietnam and the UAE have basically completed most of the negotiations on the Vietnam-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which is expected to be signed in 2024.

The CEPA agreement not only helps export goods directly to the UAE, but also helps Vietnam's goods penetrate the Middle East market through the "UAE gateway" - a key market in the Middle East, which is a focal point for countries such as Africa, Latin America and Europe. Asia in general, thanks to good seaport infrastructure, and developed aviation, is easily connected to markets.

However, the UAE is also one of the fiercely competitive markets in terms of both price and quality and this is also the biggest challenge for Vietnamese enterprises. Vietnam has to compete directly with a number of countries with which it has signed FTAs with the UAE such as India, Indonesia, Israel and Turkey... because enterprises of these countries have enjoyed incentives when exporting goods to the UAE, they have a competitive advantage compared to Vietnam's exporters.

Therefore, in order to further promote the export of Vietnamese goods to the UAE, Vietnamese enterprises need to apply advanced science and technology in production, change management methods, minimize intermediary costs, in order to reduce product costs and increase the competitiveness of Vietnamese products.

In April and May 2024, the price of pangasius at the farm and pangasius fingerlings was stable. However, prices may increase due to supply shortages if farmers raise fish slowly.

As of mid-May 2024, raw pangasius in the Mekong Delta ranges from 27,500 - 28,000 VND/kg. Fish farming households and businesses adjust farming output appropriately to meet export needs.

Previously, in the first month of this year, the price of catfish at the pond for the small size 800 - 1,200g increased by 4%, while the price of 1,200g and larger than 1,200g increased by 7%. Demand increased due to concerns about supply shortages to serve consumption during and after the Lunar New Year holiday, causing prices of raw fish and fingerlings to increase. In February 2024, the price of pangasius fingerlings continued to increase by 2%, because the price of raw fish at the pond increased after the Lunar New Year holiday, leading to increased demand for fingerling fish. However, at the end of February 2024, the supply of pangasius fingerlings is still limited with a high stocking loss rate.

Large fish are especially popular in the Chinese market. In the 19th week, the price of pangasius type 1200g+ was at 27,615 VND/kg; The price of small-sized pangasius from 800gr - 1000g has stabilized at about 27,010 VND/kg; The price of fish 1000gr - 1200gr increased in week 18 and was at 27,250 VND/kg.

In April 2024, raw pangasius prices continued to decrease by 0.3% -3%, because the purchasing speed of large enterprises was still relatively slow and the amount of purchasing from outside farms was limited. Small processing enterprises also purchase raw materials at low prices and take early holidays in April.

In contrast to China, the US and EU markets consume more than 800gr - 1000gr of raw pangasius. The price of 100% net weight pangasius fillets meets EU export standards at 2.7 USD/kg.

The price of fingerlings decreased by 7% in April 2024 and in week 19 (May 4-10, 2024), the price reached 25,700 VND/kg for 30 fish/kg.

Farmers are hesitant about raising fingerlings, which could lead to a tight supply of raw material harvest, leading to a supply shortage at the end of August or September this year. The reason why farmers are hesitant to expand pond area is that most input costs are much higher than in previous years and the decrease in pond prices in March 2024 also leads to a decrease in profits. reduce. However, raw pangasius prices may recover this year thanks to strong demand from China, the US, the EU and some other markets, as inventories have decreased, and the supply of other types of white fish Tilapia is also scarce.