The news that the US has temporarily suspended the imposition of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has created an immediate positive effect on the export market, including Vietnam's seafood and pangasius exports. What does Vietnam - the world's largest pangasius exporter - expect?

The tax deferral brings more positive sentiment to the market

This can be considered a “golden time” for both Vietnam and the US to continue negotiating, aiming to extend the deadline or, more ideally, completely eliminate the corresponding tax, i.e. reduce it to 0%.

The 90-day tax deferral also creates an opportunity to accelerate the export of orders that are stalled before the April 9 tax deadline, avoiding the risk of prolonged inventory.

This is also the time for businesses to restructure their strategies, seek alternative markets and partners, and build a system that is resilient enough in the scenario of a prolonged trade war.

Risks still exist

Although President Donald Trump’s temporary tax deferral on Vietnam creates many opportunities for the entire industry, businesses need to be alert to the risks that still exist.

This tax has only been postponed - not completely removed, which means that there is no guarantee that in the future, the US will remove or at least reduce the tax on Vietnam. Even the US's announcement to increase the tax on Chinese goods up to 125% is still effective immediately.

Trade policy under Mr. Trump always has the element of surprise, can reverse overnight and create big shocks for the market. The pangasius export market is no exception.

The impact of the trade war is long-term, especially for the "America First" policy of the Head of the White House, it will deeply affect the global supply chain, raw material costs, capital flows, inflation and monetary policies of many countries, including Vietnam and the pangasius export industry.

For Vietnam - an economy with high openness and still heavily dependent on international trade - any tariff fluctuations from the US can cause a domino effect, negatively impacting the market, including seafood and pangasius exports.

Obviously, right now, Vietnamese pangasius exporting company should focus on speeding up shipments that are still in transit and transported to the destination country, at least in the next 90 days to minimize the risk of being imposed with high taxes. At the same time, actively and proactively prepare plans to search for, expand, and replace the US market with other markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, etc. However, optimistically speaking, Vietnam is a comprehensive strategic partner of the US, the largest supplier of pangasius to this market, and US consumers are somewhat familiar with the taste of white-fleshed fish from Vietnam. Meanwhile, China is the world’s largest supplier of tilapia, a whitefish that shares many similarities with Vietnamese pangasius, and the largest for the US, but is facing record tariffs. So, there will be an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius if Chinese tilapia is too expensive to enter the US, and if Vietnam and the US reach an agreement on tariffs.

(Via: VASEP)

The price of commercial pangasius rose from 31,500 to 33,500 VND per kg; this is the highest price in three years, farmers were excited, but the output was not much.

At Hong Ngu town, Dong Thap province, farmers are excited when pangasius’s price increases sharply. Specifically, fish under one kilogram are priced at 31,500 VND per kg, while large-sized fish are mainly exported to China are priced at 33,500 VND, an increase of nearly 10,000 VND over the same period. At this price, farmers make a profit of around 7,000 VND per kg.

The increase in prices may be due to the lack of supply, while the export market has not yet prospered. Part of the farmers reduced the density to cope with the erratic weather; the temperature difference between day and night was quite high, and the fish grew slowly. On the other hand, last year the price was continuously low, many farmers lost money, and there was no capital to reinvest.

There will be a forcaste that pangasius will have high prices in the year of 2025. However, it is essential to improve the quality of fingerlings to reduce losses and reduce diseases. Therefore, it can lead to reduce costs.

In 2025, Vietnam's pangasius industry plans to maintain the output of approximately 1.65 million tons, down about 20,000 tons compared to 2024. In 2024, pangasius exports reached 2 billion USD, rose around 9%, and contributed 20% to Vietnam's total seafood export turnover.

(vasep.com.vn) Pangasius farming and export industry plays an important role in aquaculture economics in Vietnam, especially in the Mekong Delta. However, the appearance of El Niño phenomenon and climate change has put great challenges on this field.

El Niño and the influence on Pangasius fingerling

El Niño is the phenomenon specified with the unusual warmth of the sea water surface’s temperature in the center, and the east of the Pacific Ocean, causing some changes in global’ s weather. In Vietnam, El Niño usually leads to lacking water and drought in the Mekong Delta. Lacking fresh water not only reduces the aquaculture area, but it also increases the risk of diseases in fish. The rise of water temperature in El Niño period can put fish under stress, declining the growth speed, and increasing the mortality rate.

The impact of farming and producing the Pangasius process.

In Vietnam, El Niño usually leads to a lack of water and drought in the Mekong Delta. According to the National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, El Niño could decrease the rainfall between 25% and 50% compared to the average rainfall for many years, directly affecting the freshwater source for farming aquatic products.

Pangasius is a freshwater species that relies too much on the Tien and Hau rivers. Lacking fresh water not only reduces the aquaculture area but also increases the risk of diseases in fish. Besides, the rise of water temperature in El Niño can put fish under stress, declining the growth speed, and increasing the mortality rate.

The influence on Pangasius export

The reason for the decline of Pangasius production is the effects of El Niño, and climate change that result in the unstable supply, impacting on satisfying export contracts’ ability. Product quality will decline because of farming environment is unsecured, it can also decrease export’s value.

Climate change and long-term challenges

Climate change is resulting in several long-term weather challenges and sea levels. Mekong Delta, which is the main point of Pangasius farming, is seriously facing saltwater intrusion. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the dry season, saltwater intrusion might encroach inland from 50 to 70km, affecting around 40% of the Mekong Delta area. Saltwater makes water quality go down, causing difficulty for farming Pangasius originally required a freshwater environment.

Climate change also causes the frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena such as storms, floods, and drought. These changes lead to difficulty in the management of farming ponds, increasing production and risk costs for Fishman.

Adaptation solutions from the experiences of other countries

To cope with the above challenges, many countries have applied effective adaptation solutions: Transforming aquaculture models: Some European countries have adopted aquaculture models combined with renewable energy, such as using solar and wind energy, minimizing environmental impacts, and increasing economic efficiency; Monitoring and forecasting: Japan uses IoT and AI technology to monitor the water environment and forecast diseases, helping farmers adjust production activities in a timely manner.

El Niño and climate change are posing serious challenges to the world, in all sectors, including Vietnam's pangasius production and export industry. Proactively implementing adaptation and impact mitigation solutions is necessary to ensure the sustainable development of the industry in the future.

According to the latest information from a consulting firm based in Ho Chi Minh City, authorized by Undercurrent News to collect and analyze, prices of Vietnamese farmed fish rose sharply in early 2025 due to limited source of raw material. After a significant increase at the end of 2024, the price of pangasius mostly started this year at its highest level in a long time.

The last week of 2024 saw a sharp increase, and the first week of 2025, the increase was lower a bit but maintained at a high level. Fish weighing more than 1.2 kg recorded the highest price, reaching 32,440 VND (1.28 USD)/kg, the highest since 2022. These big fish are mostly popular in the Chinese market, while smaller sizes are preferred for fillet exports to the EU and the United States.

The consulting firm said that the main reason for the sharp rise in the price of large-sized fish was that the number of fish was very limited. In particular, as of the end of December 2024, fish weighing 800g to 1kg accounted for 37% of the total, while fish of larger size only accounted for about 5%.

In addition, demand from the Chinese market, especially during the Lunar New Year, also contributed to the price increase. In addition, the supply of fish is limited as fish grow slowly in cold weather in December.

The price of pangasius also continued to rise sharply, reaching VND 46,300/kg in the first week of 2025, the highest since February 2023. The consulting firm also warned of a shortage of fish in the coming months, due to a sharp drop in supply and a low survival rate during the breeding season.